Thursday, March 5, 2015
Long-term vs short-term investing, and football
In investing, long-term predictions can be made with more certainty than short-term ones. It is like football. I see a team with a great manager, players and billionaire backing the club, so I can confidently predict that this team will be in the top 3 some time in the next 5 seasons. It is much harder to predict which game the team will win in a particular season or which players will score in a particular game. But then there's no market for such long-term betting in football. Maybe it should be created. Maybe it will make some fans think longer-term. Maybe it will make them reconsider their assumptions and expectations. Each time after a "poor" game (by the fans' definitions), I see lots of fans suddenly become pro managers. Blaming the players, blaming the formation, blaming the manager's tactics etc. Although they have a right to do that for sure. It's a free world. But when everyone is thinking the same way, someone is definitely not thinking.
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Agreed that there are a lot of factors that go into short term investing and long term investing. I try to keep up with it by following recent analyst recommendations.
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