Friday, May 25, 2012

US ticking debt bomb

Did some number crunching:

If interest on US debt is as high as Spain's 6%, the US will be spending $1 trillion per year in paying interest alone, almost half of their tax revenue receipts. That will bring their annual spending close to $4.5 trillion, and annual deficit close to $2.5 trillion. Mind boggling

Will the interest rate go to 6%? It's just a matter of time before confidence in paper money runs out. Paul Volcker had to raise rates to 20% in June 1981 to SAVE the USD (because they also printed a lot of money prior to 1980), and back then US were on a much sounder economic footing.

At 20% rate, US interest on debt will be $3.1 trillion, almost the entire government budget!

When I say government budget I mean their proposed expenses (yes, deficit-spending rocks....not) ... $3.1 trillion would be 1.4x of government's tax revenue.)

The collapse is inevitable. And what are the politicians say when the US finally gets into trouble? "It's the Europeans' fault and the Chinese's fault."

Singapore in trouble?

Singapore has a stunning 60% of GDP in European Bank claims.
Is it a coincidence that Singapore is warning of European default risk?

The volume of searches for the phrase 'Bank Run' has just hit an all-time high - higher now than 

even during the peak of the Lehman Brothers 'moment' in 2008.

It appears Singaporeans are running the most scared of bank runs.

Europe is in big trouble (though people are going to realise US is in a worst shape). A few years ago, I observed that the English Premier League, and some other European football leagues, looks like a bubble. They borrowed massively and paid bloated salaries to the players. If these clubs go insolvent, will we see a scenario whereby the banks seize the clubs' players? 

Sunday, May 13, 2012

13 May 2012 Midnight Reflection

13 May 2012 12.20am Singapore Time

I started this blog in August 18, 2009, after some decent understanding about how economics and money work. The best economics theory that coincides with the truth is that of the Austrian School of Economics'. My main aim was to educate people on what economics and money are really about. I am not trying to make them rich as much as I'm trying to make them (and especially their future generations) learn how to protect their hard-earned savings.

It was no wonder that I had no interest in economics while I was in school. It was crap. It didn't make sense. Starting from the desire to learn more about the true economics, I had discovered more about politics and history than most people do. It feels like I suddenly understood how the world really works. It was a life-changing moment. Something that I had sub-consciously sought since my teens. I had found something so compelling, that I had to share the TRUTH. Sadly, I often found myself the sole lone voice. Most people just don't want to listen. In the near future, people are going to realise how terribly wrong they have been - if they are honest enough with themselves.

It is mass-propaganda. It is the first time in history that we have this global mass-brainwashing. We were born into this fiat monetary system, we were taught in schools about its merit, and now, people don't question it at all. Most people cannot see the other side of the coin. Anyone who wants to discuss alternatives are met with hostilities, high emotions, name-callings, or are simply branded as being biased, lunatic, and self-delusional, among other things.

I find myself arguing with people on Facebook on many nights. Sometimes I could not even sleep. How can I make them see my point!!! It has been frustrating at times. And I'm more than convinced than ever that 99.9% of the world do not understand what real economics is. And this is seriously not an exaggeration or an emotional statement. I'll be glad if 700,000 (0.01%)  people in the world TRULY understood Austrian economics.

Some of my friends agree with what I have to say. At the risk of sounding obnoxious, there's only one friend who understood Austrian economics the way I do. I had some good discussions with him, that furthered our understanding of economics. The one pet-peeve I have is that he doesn't make noise about this. You're not spreading the truth with me, buddy :)

Anyway, enough with the ramblings. The economic predictions I have been making will come true without a single morsel of doubt. The USD currency will become confetti if the politicians continue to pursue the same senseless monetary and foreign policies. People will lose faith in paper money. We will see gold, silver, oil, and agricultural commodities hit way higher prices than today's, priced in terms of paper money. Government bonds will collapse. Interest rates will soar. Price inflation will be mad. There will be riots on the streets in US and Europe at least.

This is not a doom-and-gloom prediction for the world though. If people understood Austrian economics, they will know what to be wildly bullish about, and what to be pessimistic about.

And what do I expect people to say when these predictions come to pass?
"You're just lucky."
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