Monday, January 7, 2013

The $1-trillion dollar platinum coin

So, now the 'expert' economists start to think that this $1-trillion dollar platinum coin could work?

What this means, if the US govt can simply mint a platinum coin with a $1-trillion stamp on it and pay its debt to the Fed:

-When the US govt pays the 2 coins to the Fed, the Fed effectively suffer heavy losses of $2 trillion.
-It's the same as the US govt giving Fed a piece of tissue with $2 trillion stamped on it.
-In fact, why bother. The Fed can just write off the $2 trillion debt and take losses from its bond purchases.
-The govt will still continue to run even larger deficits and accumulate even more debt to other creditors.
-The govt turns back to Fed to print more money to buy up govt debt. More inflation.

Possible responses from the market:

-Market gets buoyed by the sudden, magical disappearance of debt worth $2 trillion, only to find to their dismay further down the road that this doesn't improve the US budget and debt outlook at all
-Other creditors find this ridiculous and start unloading govt bonds

To Simplify things:
-Assume that the Fed is part of the govt
-Therefore, all these years, the govt has been printing money to spend like crazy
-Govt will continue to print money to spend and pay creditors, and to keep interest rates low lest companies fail on a massive scale again
-Accelerating inflation down the road

Bottom-line:
Does the $2-trillion debt wipe-off matter for the fundamentals? Not at all !!
Will the market rally? Possible, but not for long because people will figure it out eventually

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