Saturday, January 5, 2013

QE3 to stop? Nah

Recently I've gotten a few messages telling me that gold and silver will crash, because the Fed may/will end QE3 come end of Dec 2013.

Ending the QE will be a great thing for the US and for the world. QE1, 2 and 3 should never have been started in the first place. The Fed has to force the government to cut spending drastically. But what happens when they end it? The US government will find it very very hard to service their debt. Even a 1% rise in interest rates will mean the government has to find an additional $170 billion a year to cover the increased interest payment. What if the interest rates go back to the historical norm of 5%? That will be $850 billion. What about 10%? or 20% just like in 1980? It's impossible for them. And companies which are dependent on the current low interest rates will go bankrupt on a massive scale. Bailed-out companies in 2008 will go bust again. They have a massive amount of bonds on their balance sheets. So, will they stop the QE3? They may announce something along that line, BUT I know they will continue to print behind the scenes. This is nothing new. Or they may change its name or form. But it does not matter.

Even if QE3 is indeed stopped, precious metals will still be a good place to be in, because the last safe haven - when the government bond bubble burst - will be metals. Sure, for a while, metals may take a hit, because short-term speculators will exit their trades. Metals have been up 12 years in a row and a 40-50% correction is typical of a bull market. But the long term fundamental is still intact for these metals. When I first started investing a few years ago, I was not dreaming of qe1, 2, 3 or infinity to push up prices. In fact, I was and have been criticising the Fed for doing these QEs. Apparently this doesn't register with the anti-gold crowd. So this latest talk of the town is not a big news in the big scheme of things.

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