Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Wrong call on taper


Singapore's top bank: We got our Fed call wrong:
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-top-bank-got-fed-055000336.html

A lot of market participants got it wrong in September. They were all expecting the Fed to taper by an average of $10b. In August, I was saying that it is more likely that the Fed will continue/increase QE rather than taper. Turns out that they couldn't even do a token $1b or $5b taper!

To reiterate, the Fed's priority is the bond market! They want to keep the government afloat.

Now the market is expecting the Fed to taper later this year or early next year.

The next surprise for the market will be when the Fed does not taper or when they increase the size of QE. Even if they do taper, they will return after a few months, because the pain will be too great.

No comments:

Post a Comment

 
Web Statistics