Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Traders entertain me more than precious metals price movements

Note: This post is not directed at any particular person. I love you all.

There we go again. It's the time of the bull market when there's a nice correction in gold and silver. As usual, I am inundated with messages from the anti-gold people. I have nothing against them and do not look down on them in any way, and I hope they have nothing against me too. I respect their views with regards to short-term price movements, and have never challenged any of those views.

It's unfortunate that a lot of traders cannot see things from the perspective of a long-term investor. As a long term investor, I understand the actions of short-term traders - why they enter or exit at certain prices, why they follow everyday-news closely, etc - but this understanding is almost always non-reciprocal.

With all due respect, traders focus more on charts than do actual research on market happenings that have occurred in the past. This turns into a big mistake if they then try to predict long-term trends without sufficient data and historical perspective. No matter how I tried to present the macro factors to them, they are just simply and conveniently ignored. To repeat - I know traders live in the here and now and maybe they make lots of money, but to make long-term predictions without adequate data and historical perspective is a mistake.

I would like to point out that there are good traders - they can make money in bull or bear markets. But more often than not, they try to push their views onto long-term investors - when it comes to exit or entry points to the market. I take pains to keep on repeating that I am not concerned about short-term price movements at all. Not at all. Non. Nada. NoNoNo. I'm happy with the way I invest and I'm guessing they are happy with the way they trade too. Unfortunately when I don't follow their sometimes well-intentioned advice, they start making wild claims that I'm too emotionally attached to my investment, or that I'm stubborn, or that I am being slaughtered by the price crash, or that I'm a gold bug - the list goes on.

The reasons why I buy silver have not changed the slightest ever since I bought my first oz. The reasons why I will eventually exit silver have not changed the slightest ever since I bought my first oz. Not at all. Non. Nada. NoNoNo. These short-term price movements are entertaining, but non-events in the scheme of things. Such things should not surprise long-term investors at all.

Anyway, silver's price movements in the past 2 trading days are awesome. Such corrections are perfectly normal and I love it. I just wish I have more cash to buy them up.

While I expect big corrections to happen from time to time, I am not smart enough to know exactly when or at what prices. That's why I do not try to time the market and short sell. That being said, I keep getting "I told you so" messages. If traders really saw this 'crash' coming and acted on their convictions (no conviction = speculation/gambling. well, somewhat.), they would have shorted gold and made $200 x (insert leverage multiple here). Easy.

P.S. I still love you all.

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