they psychology of economic commentators

Over the years, it has come to my attention that people like to predict a bull market right after a bear market, or a bear market right after a bull market. This is not true all the time. Certainly, we've been taught to enter the market after things hit bottom. But what we're not told is, after how long after things hit the bottom? And why should things turn around?

People rush in to buy once things hit bottom. The housing market in the US is a prime example. Now after a few years of downturn, people are predicting a housing recovery and a US recovery. Why? Well, it has to be! Because they've been down for so long! It has hit bottom! (Of course, the same people have been predicting the same thing and giving the same reasons for a few years ever since the housing collapse in 2007/2008).

Unfortunately, such assumption has no base. This assumption is made based on headlines from the media. It is made based on what is taught in schools and by investment gurus. If one were to really do his/her homework and examine the actual numbers, things are far from rosy. There're still too much EXCESSES to be cleared from the US economy and the housing market. Excess debt. Excess inventory. Excess regulations. Excess taxes. Excess spending. I've tried many times to show people the real numbers, but they're being ignored.

But maybe they'll turn out to be right. Who knows. It's highly unlikely from my perspective. Maths and history don't lie.