Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Durable US economic growth?

"US economic growth may be mild, but it's also really durable"
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economic-growth-rate-stays-2-2-percent-123559891--finance.html

Absent from this article is the fact that the Fed did not have rounds and rounds and trillions of dollars of stimulus in the past, or anything comparable in scale. Up till now, people are still trying to justify the disappointing growth. It has been 7 years into this emergency mode now. And the market has gotten very used to it - always not a good thing in financial markets. What happens when the next problem hits? How do you get into an emergenci-er mode than this current 7-year emergency mode? It would be really interesting to see what happens to the market in the next 1-3 years.

Lee Kuan Yew

Singapore has lost its founding father on 23rd March 2015, 3.18am.  I have not studied his work in detail, so I do not have much to say. Even though Mr. Lee is being viewed as being oppressive by foreigners, foreign leaders nevertheless flew to Singapore to pay their respects to him. It makes me wonder if these foreign leaders really believed in democracy themselves. Even if they do, it still makes sense that they're paying respect to him as a nation-builder. It must not be easy to lead and build a nation.

Democracy has been over-hyped. Though a good system, and probably better than dictatorship, it has its flaws. There had been prosperous and powerful empires in the past that did not have democracy. I do not buy the idea that the population as a whole knows what is ultimately good for the nation. Democracy will ultimately degrade into deep divisions among the populace. The founding fathers of US studied Greek democracy and decided that it is unsustainable. That was why the US was created as a republic.

That said, nothing lasts forever. I do not know what the best system of governance is. If there is a great leader who truly wants to build a prosperous nation, as I've been increasingly convinced that Mr. Lee was doing, democracy may not be the best system. That said, we do not want a Kim Jong Il either.

While libertarians like myself may not agree with certain policies of Mr. Lee, I am inspired by his hard work and dedication. I always appreciate hard work. This is what I always try to instil in my students. Hard work may not necessarily lead to results, but there is no substitute for hard work.

In the spirit of motivating ourselves, I ask the question: He built a nation. What have we built?

Friday, March 20, 2015

Business lesson #5: Don't do it half-heartedly

coming up..

Business lesson #4: Know your product inside out

I went into tutoring after about a year working in 2 companies. I partnered with a student's mother to start a new venture. We imported diabetic-friendly rice from South Korea. I went along with the venture because it seems like I can learn a thing or two. Everything happened in a rush. We created business cards and printed several huge banners with the product information on it. But the resolution was so bad that the words on the banners were blurred and unreadable. We set up a booth in a trade exhibition in Singapore Expo. My girlfriend came to help. I felt bad in the days leading up to the exhibition, because I knew nuts about the product! But there was no turning back. Things happened very fast. I had wanted to discuss strategy with my partner but was afraid to do so. She had prior experiences selling products too, and I did not want to question her. On reflection, that was a bad mistake on my part. I had a few suggestions which could have really improved our chances had I been more determined to make them, rather than drop feeble hints now and then.

The supplier claimed that the rice was doing miracles to diabetics in Korea. They had anecdotal evidence in the form of a video, which we played in front of our booth. We had tried to get endorsements from doctors for our products, but failed. I had tried to understand the technical documents on the product that the supplier sent over, but couldn't understand it. It was too late to get a knowledgeable representative from Korea to help us, not that we had any chance of getting him even if we had the time. I tried my best to explain to visitors to our booth.

And then it hits. I was somewhat anticipating it. A man with his wife and son came to my booth and questioned me about the rice. I had nothing better to offer him other than to ask him to trust me. I referred him to the huge, unreadable banner in our booth in an effort to save the situation. But it just made matters worse. He yelled at me, saying that I should not be selling such stuff and telling me that his son has diabetes. Fortunately, he left without creating more commotion.

That was a really bad experience. Although we had some sales that day, one bad incident was enough to ruin everything. One bad incident was enough to expose your vulnerability - in my case, my lack of knowledge of my product. So, always be prepared. Know your product inside out. Not only will it help you in your sales, but it will also give you greater confidence and passion in selling.




Business lesson #3: Quality. Price. Reputation.

I had to repay my debt. I set up an eBay account with my good friend Ajan, and we sold watches and online gaming guidebooks, and those unsold aromatherapy products from my failed venture.

We visited some sort of a flea market in Bugis, bought tons of watches, and tried to sell them online. The watches were really cheap. We tried to strike a deal with the stall owner, but he could not lower the prices further. We marked up the price by at least 100%. It was dirt cheap. It was still cheap at our selling price. We managed to sell a few, but soon, we gave up. The watches were of really poor quality. Mine broke down after I've barely started wearing it (like maybe once or twice?). It barely sold. Cheap products do not necessarily sell! Looking for a quality, affordable supplier is probably one of the hardest things to do for a new venture. And this is probably what puts most people off from starting something new. Capital was always the excuse, but I doubt that this is the number one hindrance. At the back of our minds, surely most of us think that we need to have certain connections with businessmen and suppliers. And since most of us don't, we simply give up trying. Well, I would like to say that this is certainly not true at all, and my recent experience confirms it. But I will share it in another post.

The gaming guidebooks sold really well though. We sold guidebooks for 2 games - Runescape and MapleStory. I remember waking up each morning and checking my email in anticipation of sales notifications from eBay. Each email notification meant $3.99 in sales. It was so easy! There was virtually no work involved in selling digital books. I can't recall what happened to the guidebook business. It probably died out over time - either because everyone already has one, or because we did not update our guidebooks. The guidebooks were not created by us. We had no means of updating it or making it more exciting. We had great knowledge of Runescape. I was growing my virtual wealth in the game so fast through sheer hard work and dedication. But hey, it is always easier to do it in a virtual world. I always told myself that I can make it really far if I transfer that hard work and dedication over into the real world. In any case, those knowledge of Runescape was not translated into our own original guidebook. We were probably too late to the game. Creating a guidebook may take months, by which time all the market shares would have belonged to the incumbents. As for MapleStory, we had zero knowledge of it. So, no original guidebook for that for sure.

The aromatherapy products sold extremely well. I was out of stocks very fast. Ajan helped me. We tried to set up a website to circumvent the eBay fees, but our primitive knowledge of web-building got us nowhere. I had to sell the products through eBay in the end. Through this experience, I learnt a great deal about international shipping and postage, not that there is too much to learn. I got a feel of the costs and time involved in shipping - by sea or by air. I got a feel of what is allowed and not allowed to be shipped. I would wrap up the products nicely in a bubble wrap, purchase some small boxes from the post office, drop the products and thank-you notes in the boxes, and ship them out. I had buyers from US, Europe and some parts of Asia. I had people who wanted to order tons of it, I had people who kept asking me when I will have new stocks (of course, I was never going to get any new stocks).  My customers gave me glowing reviews. After graduation from my university, I was able to show these reviews to my interviewer cum boss in a small company. And I was hired.

Lessons learnt:
-There had to be a minimum standard in the quality of your product. The watches were never going to see daylight because they were really bad, even though their appearance was nice.
-Selling digital books are great. You create it once and you can sell unlimited quantities without incurring further costs other than electricity and transaction fees. But it is even greater if you can create your own content. Since I do a ton of research on investment and economics, I can probably create some contents myself and sell them. This is in the pipeline. A future project.
-Reputation is very important to me. My aromatherapy customers enjoyed the great product at reasonable prices and relatively fast shipping times. I answered all of their questions promptly and sincerely. I tried my best to deal with any discontent. If I remember correctly, I even sent a replacement product to an unhappy customer. If your reputation is good, customers will stick with you, and they will probably tolerate some rough patches that you might go through.


Business lesson #2: Raising Cash, and business strategy

When I was 10, I left Malaysia for Singapore to study. I focused on my studies and did very well. Money was always tight. I was always waiting for my mother to send me some cash. I know that it was tough for her financially, but I did not know the full extent of the problem till years later. I found out that my dad was in debt. A humongous debt. I had to do something to help. But what? At that time, starting a business seems like a way forward. I want to be a businessman, and I also want to help my dad.

My next venture: MLM. I joined a network-marketing company called Bel'Air. They sold aromatherapy products. The entry fees was really high. But the returns look really good as well (what did I expect? Those returns come from the really high entry fees from new members). I borrowed about SGD 20k from 15 people to give myself a head start in the venture (the more you invest, the greater the potential returns). In exchange, the company gave me several cartons of aromatherapy products. I had to start looking for new members. You see, we don't really go out and sell these products one by one. We look for what the company called "franchisees". The company said that each of us were selling franchises, not individual products. That was how the money rolled in so fast!

The leaders in the company often used me as an example of a "driven individual", someone who raised so much money even at such a young age (18, I think?). I did not think that much of myself, because I know there are younger people who have done even more than me in other businesses. I will forever be grateful to the individuals who lent me that money. The highest sum was $5k, and the lowest was $90. I have a former teacher taking out money from his retirement funds to lend it to me. I have another teacher who told me that I do not have to repay her the money. She wanted me to learn. What absolutely great, kind and generous teachers. I am forever indebted to them. I have a hostel owner lending me money, when I had barely spoken to her before. I have a friend who lent me money even though I was never close to him. I have a friend who lent me money even though he doesn't have much. I have my brother reveal his stash of money hidden in a suitcase in a cupboard in his room. I never knew he managed to accumulate so much cash so secretly!

Business was hard. I can write a ton about it but I shall not. About 3 to 4 months into it, I gave up. I could see that the company had abandoned its principles, just within the short span of a month or two after I joined. Initially, the way we acquired a new franchisee was to do prospecting patiently. Set up a meeting, have a good chat, exchange books and CDs (these are carrots, so we have an excuse to meet the individual again), talk about our business ambitions, and the likes. The franchisee would slowly learn more and more about our company, and we would slowly coax him or her in.

But everything changed once we heard about how well the company was doing in Taiwan and China. Franchisees seemingly become rich overnight. They would prospect multiple individuals, suck in those who're ambitious, and discard the rest. Turn over a stone, find a gem on its bottom, and shove it into the pocket. Find nothing underneath, and simply toss the stone away. It was really fast and furious. Over here in Singapore, the leaders galvanised the entire team, giving everyone great energy to copy this tactic. It worked. It was euphoric.

I saw the problem with this strategy right away. Taiwan's and China's populations are huge compared to Singapore's. We do not have the luxury to pursue the same strategy! We were made to list out EVERY single person we have come across in life. And contact EVERY single one of them immediately, and set appointments with EVERY single one of them right away. I thought all of us would soon run out of prospects. I thought it was unsustainable. I remembered staring at my sketchbook on which I had drawn up a tree of prospects grouped accordingly to where I got to know them. I stared at it all the time. Most of them are not people whom I am close to. How can I use this aggressive strategy on them? I like to pull people in, not push them in.

Those of us who couldn't keep up with the rest of the team felt enormous pressure. I was one of them. I did not like this new tactic at all. I wanted to bring in new prospects, build relationships patiently, and really make them see the merits of the business before making an investment. I brought in 2 friends this way, within a month or two. This new tactic was nothing like the old model of patient prospecting and build-up. As days and weeks go by, I got drained. The distance between the headquarters and my dorm did not help. The late nights did not help. It was interfering with my studies (as if I bothered about studying). I gave up after having made back about $8k. It was a loss of $12k for me, plus tons of time and money spent on food and travel expenses. Soon after, those 2 friends of mine quit too. And needless to say, the company disintegrated months later.

I learnt 3 things from this experience:
-The first is that raising cash is not as difficult as most people think. My sincerity helped me raise cash from relatives, teachers and a hostel boss. But sincerity alone is not going to cut it when I am dealing with serious investors. I've learnt a lot about business-pitching through the TV show Shark Tank. And I would encourage budding entrepreneurs to view those shows too. Raising cash gets easier the more you know how to do it. What's more, with recent deregulation of crowd-funding (seriously, what's with all these regulations?), it has never been easier. Of course, it does not mean that anyone will fund your project. You have to do some groundwork, which may take months. One just need to learn the ropes.
-The second thing I learnt is that a business should not be blinded by the short-term profits like the MLM company. Think long-term. The business has to grow really fast initially, but it has to be sustainable in the long-run too. Bel'air made the mistake of not thinking long-term. If you chuck away 9 people after prospecting 10 people, very soon you will run out of people to prospect, especially in a small country like Singapore, with a population of just a few million! On the other hand, if a business went on too slowly, market shares will be lost. MLM was really hot back then. Even so, I believe that a business with really strong fundamentals will survive. So, one really has to strike a good balance. Build up a company with strong foundations. Bel'air's foundation was shaky to begin with, and I should have realised it earlier. Their products were too highly-priced. They wanted to use the "sell a franchise right" concept, instead of "sell a product" concept. These 2 factors were what made them money. But what happens when consumers came to their senses? These highly-priced products are going to work against the company! And make no mistake, there weren't really consumers in the traditional sense for Bel'air products. The consumers were the franchisees themselves! I remember being told that. This shaky foundation, coupled with the copy-Taiwan and copy-China strategy ensured the downfall of the company.
-How to do sales and project yourself. Those sales trainings were really useful! There were some intimidating incidents for an 18 year old. I've been shamed and embarrassed in front of a large crowd. But I learnt so much from it. The experience was invaluable.



Business lesson #1: Confidence building

I had not intended this blog to be on anything other than investment and economic-related issues. But I thought I'll put this down somewhere. It serves as a reminder to myself to work hard and also, it'll be interesting to re-read my own posts/thoughts a few years down the road.

I had always been interested in running a business. When I was young, maybe around 7-10 years old if my memory serves me correctly, I remember playing the "business game" with my 2 brothers. Back in my home town in Muar, we live in our grandmother's house - a big house. We each chose our own corners of the house and set up our business stall. We used small tables and chairs as our stalls. We wrote our company names on a paper and propped it up in front of our tables. My company name was in Malay: "Syarikat Jin". It means something like Jin Pte. Ltd. in English. We fashioned out of cardboards and papers the sort of games that you see in fun-fairs. We would visit each other's stalls to try out the games. We used coins that we find lying around the house as money. We used marbles and erasers to play the games. We gave each other small rewards (erasers, as far as I can remember) if we beat the games.

Naturally, as the eldest brother, I always end up with the most money. If I remember correctly, I would encourage my brothers to visit my stall often, while not repaying that in kind.

This small activity further increased my appetite and confidence for doing business. I wanted to make real money, not subtly making my brothers hand money over to me. Over the years, I've learnt that confidence is what really matters. And confidence is best built up when one was young. Imagine the confidence that you will have if you had gone selling products door to door when you were still a kid! I never had that experience. But I always imagined it as though I had it. Even if you fake it, it will still work. I came across a phrase recently, and that is: Fake It Till You Make It!
 
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