Monday, July 9, 2012

Purchasing power of fiat vs gold


it's dangerous to have too much faith in paper money...compare gold's purchasing power to fiat paper money in the past 100 yrs:



The money-printing central bank's great (sarcasm) record in promoting economic stability brings about very few recessions in the 20th century:

1918-1919, 1920-1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1927, 1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1947-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1973-1975, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, 2007, 2012-2014 (my projection)

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Don't worship paper money, don't have blind faith in paper money!

Don't worship paper money, don't have blind faith in paper money, or you will lose a ton of purchasing power. History has shown this to be the case time after time!

Economists and TV commentators keep saying that when there's a global economic slowdown, precious metals prices will go down. I don't know whether the second part of their statement is true in the short-run, but in the long-run, it is definitely wrong.

The more important question is: Slowdown of what relative to what?

If car producers have a slowdown in demand relative to fish producers, it may mean you can use less fish to buy more cars, because fish has become more valuable relative to cars. So the fish producers gain purchasing power relative to car producers. The car producers lose purchasing power relative to fish producers.

Even IF globally, there's a meltdown in prices - stocks, housing, agriculture, precious metals, etc - I still think precious metals (and agriculture) will gain in purchasing power relative to other things. The fundamentals for this is so strong.

If there is a collapse in global supply of real goods, real goods will gain in purchasing power relative to paper money (therefore, goods prices in terms of paper money goes up).

If there is a collapse in global demand of real goods, real goods will still gain in purchasing power relative to paper money, because so much has been printed in the past few years. And politicians and central banks are going to print even more during crisis.

It has always been about the transfer of purchasing power (or wealth) from one place to another. If people REALLY understood this principle and how it works, Keynesianism would have been extinct a long time ago. Yet, the majority of the people on the globe still have Keynesian ideas. Whether they identify themselves as a Keynesian or not is immaterial.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

A pause

My blog may sound anti-government and anti-US. But it really is not. What I wish for is limited government, libertarianism, and free-market capitalism. Unfortunately we don't have all those in the modern age. The US just happens to be the best example that I can use, because they became powerful based on the principles of libertarianism and free-markets. However, today they're totally opposite of what they used to stand for.

Monday, June 25, 2012

Sugar Delight

Some Sugary Appetiser to share (I may post a Sugary Main Course full of demand and supply data):

Sugar
Historical high: 65.2 Cents/lb in November of 1974
Inflation-adjusted high using govt-manipulated inflation figures: $2.91/lb
Inflation-adjusted high using private sources of inflation figures: > $6/lb

Today's price: About 21 Cents/lb

1974 Gold:Sugar ratio = $100 : $0.65
Today's ratio = $1600 : $0.21
If 1974's ratio is achieved again = $1600 : $9.92

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Minimum government and maximum freedom

100 yrs ago, US became the richest and most powerful nation history has ever known. They achieved it based on: Minimum government and maximum freedom. People flocked there and lived the "American Dream", because it is the land of free people. They can produce and save and retire.

Before the creation of the Federal Reserve central bank, there were no Federal government taxes, no department of education, no department of energy, no healthcare involvement, no medicare, medicaid, social security, and of course, people were able to produce and save, because they were on a gold standard and their savings grow in value over time. They had 200 yrs of sustained fall in prices of goods and services.

Today US is the opposite.
Money-printing by the Fed (this is not capitalism!) enables the government to grow so huge and be involved in so many things - education, healthcare, wars, bailouts, banking, food, etc
Money-printing causes inflation, and hard-working people's savings lose value.
Money-printing drives interest rates down, and no one is able to save. So they borrow and borrow and consume and consume. Everyone becomes a speculator and buy stocks/forex in order to get more money.

Now they're deeply indebted, and a crisis is coming very soon, maybe towards the end of this year, or next year. The timing, I can't be sure. But it'll be a currency/debt crisis. The end-result is a 100% certainty. It's just a matter of time.


Liberty


For those who are not pleased with taxes and CPF:

Is the foundation of civilisation peace and free exchange and voluntary interaction of individuals, or is the foundation of civilisation -as the state would have it- the gun, the badge and the hangman? The state has warped our moral sense, and taught us that looting and aggression are okay, as long as they're done by majority vote. It has turned us against each other. It has taken natural harmonies and replace them with disharmonies. - Tom Woods


What we are really faced with in society is not a conflict of rich vs poor, or white vs black, or city vs country, or industry vs agriculture - but all of us against the parasites who live off our labour, and train us to believe that there is no other way to live. There is anohter way to live, and it's called liberty. Join us.
- Murray rothbath:

Fiat money creates big govt.

The data show that Govt (and of course, economic problems) grows enormously ever since the creation of Fed (the current US central bank and the 3rd central bank of US. The first 2 failed).

(All figures in billions)
Year 1800 --- GDP $0.476 --- Govt size $0.01 --- govt size as % of GDP 2.1%
Year 1850 --- GDP $2.556 --- Govt size $0.04 --- govt size as % of GDP 1.6%
Year 1910 (3 yrs before Fed was created) --- GDP $33.423 --- Govt size $0.84 --- govt size as % of GDP 2.5%
Year 1950 --- GDP 293.7 --- Govt size $44.80 --- govt size as % of GDP 15%
Year 2000 --- GDP $9951.5 --- Govt Size $1788.95 --- govt size as % of GDP 18%
Year 2010 --- GDP $14526.5 --- Govt size $3091.34 --- govt size as % of GDP 21%

These are according to official govt figures... the most recent 2 decades of which have been heavily manipulated. Some really big things are being hidden from their balance sheet. So the actual figures for 2000-2010 are actually far worse than is shown here
 
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